「The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.」- 丹尼尔·卡尼曼经典语录

The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

💡 解读：我们理解过去的错觉助长了我们预测未来的过度自信。

👤 更多丹尼尔·卡尼曼经典语录 10句

我们只能在事情发生后才能决定某个时刻是值得纪念的还是毫无意义的。

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

金钱买不到幸福，但缺钱肯定会带来痛苦。

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

我们都极度关注自己的人生故事，并希望故事的主角正派，结局完美。

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

心理账户：由于消费者心理账户的存在，个体在做决策时往往会违背一些简单的经济运算法则，从而做出许多非理性的消费行为。人们大量售出自己的盈利股、保留亏损股的偏好，这被视为一种偏见，也叫处置效应，它是窄框架的一个例子。

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

窄框架：分别思考两个简单的决策问题；宽框架：一个有四个选项的综合决策问题。在任何情况下，将多种决策综合考虑都会更有优势，但人们天生喜欢用的是窄框架，我们倾向于在问题刚出现的时候立刻作出决策。

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

理论诱导的盲区：一旦接受了某个理论并将其作为一个思考工具，就很难注意到其错误。

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

是否聪明睿智，那么说话时就言简意赅吧，能用简单句的时候就别用复杂句。

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

买书的速度大于看书的速度，找书的速度大于看书的速度，一味追求速度。对于流畅的内容浅尝辄止，对于生涩的内容敷衍了事，一味地追求阅读量。反省自我的阅读时刻。任性过后，现在思考，改变思想的使用，逐渐改变。

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

在经济行为中，付出就是成本，学习技能是为了追求利益和成本的平衡。因为懒惰是人类的本性。

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

直觉启发法的核心观点：当面对难题时，我们往往会对相对简单的问题进行回答，却忽略了自己已经置换了原始问题这个事实。

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

李娟

但愿同入梦。

琼瑶

悲伤就是知识

拜伦

表面看起来糟糕的事，本质上却往往并非如此。

塞涅卡

我绝不坚信这个时代没有放之四海而皆准的正义和良善的价值观，它们不仅仅有，而且不是朝令夕改流动无常的，它们是稳定而永恒的。

亚历山大·索尔仁尼琴

我们根本没想到要怀疑或轻视“历史的启示”；历史就是我们的一切。

恩格斯

奇花与丽日争妍，翠竹共青天斗碧。

吴承恩

大家礼义教子弟，小家凶恶训儿郎。

周希陶

人人为我，我为人人。

列宁

真理就是自由人的祖国。真理不存在于丑化了的现实里。生命的第一个行动就是创造的行动。在争论中是不分高贵卑鄙，也不管称号姓氏的，重要的只是真理，在它面前人人平等。

罗曼·罗兰

40句相邻名言

The rate of savings is the most strategic variable in economic development.

阿瑟·刘易斯

经济增长理论与发展经济学先驱

Development is not about goods, but about people.

阿瑟·刘易斯

经济增长理论与发展经济学先驱

The most important thing in economic development is not to do things right, but to do the right things.

阿瑟·刘易斯

经济增长理论与发展经济学先驱

The art of economic development consists not in looking at the present, but in foreseeing the future.

阿瑟·刘易斯

经济增长理论与发展经济学先驱

The problem of poverty is not that people are lazy, but that the economic system does not provide them with opportunities.

阿瑟·刘易斯

经济增长理论与发展经济学先驱

Development must be conceived as a multidimensional process involving major changes in social structures, popular attitudes, and national institutions as well as the acceleration of economic growth, the reduction of inequality, and the eradication of poverty.

阿瑟·刘易斯

经济增长理论与发展经济学先驱

Economic growth without social progress lets the great majority of the people remain in poverty, while a privileged few reap the benefits of rising abundance.

阿瑟·刘易斯

经济增长理论与发展经济学先驱

The most important thing in economic development is not to do things right but to do the right things.

阿瑟·刘易斯

经济增长理论与发展经济学先驱

The process of economic growth is not a smooth and continuous one; it is marked by spurts and pauses, by leaps and bounds.

阿瑟·刘易斯

经济增长理论与发展经济学先驱

The lemons problem is a situation where the buyer is not sure of the quality of the product and therefore is only willing to pay a price that reflects the average quality.

乔治·阿克洛夫

信息不对称理论奠基人

The lemons problem refers to the difficulty in assessing the quality of a product when the seller has more information than the buyer.

乔治·阿克洛夫

信息不对称理论奠基人

The lemons problem occurs because the seller knows more about the product than the buyer, leading to market failure.

乔治·阿克洛夫

信息不对称理论奠基人

Identity economics is about how identity influences economic outcomes.

乔治·阿克洛夫

信息不对称理论奠基人

The most important ideas in economics are simple, but their implications are profound.

乔治·阿克洛夫

信息不对称理论奠基人

People are not always rational, and their irrationality can have significant economic consequences.

乔治·阿克洛夫

信息不对称理论奠基人

The market for used cars is a classic example of asymmetric information.

乔治·阿克洛夫

信息不对称理论奠基人

The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

2002年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者

We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

2002年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者

The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

2002年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者

A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

2002年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者

Nothing in life is as important as you think it is when you are thinking about it.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

2002年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者

Globalization has helped hundreds of millions of people attain higher standards of living, beyond what they, or most economists, thought imaginable. But for millions of people globalization has not worked. Many have actually been made worse off, as they have seen their jobs destroyed and their lives become more insecure.

约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨

信息经济学理论

Markets, by themselves, do not produce efficient outcomes when information is imperfect or markets are incomplete.

约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨

信息经济学理论

Inequality is not inevitable. It is a choice we make with the policies we pursue.

约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨

信息经济学理论

The most important resource in any economy is the talent of its people. If we don’t develop that talent, we are not going to succeed.

约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨

信息经济学理论

Globalization has been accompanied by the creation of a new set of institutions, the international economic institutions, which have played a central role in the globalization process.

约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨

信息经济学理论

Inequality is not inevitable. It is a choice we make with the policies we enact.

约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨

信息经济学理论

Markets are not efficient in the presence of asymmetric information.

约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨

信息经济学理论

Globalization has helped reduce poverty in some countries, but it has also increased inequality within and between nations.

约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨

信息经济学理论

The most important resource in any economy is the talent of its people.

约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨

信息经济学理论

The key to economic growth is the discovery of new recipes and the transformation of ideas into valuable goods and services.

保罗·罗默

内生增长理论开创者

Economic growth occurs whenever people take resources and rearrange them in ways that are more valuable.

保罗·罗默

内生增长理论开创者

A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.

保罗·罗默

内生增长理论开创者

The most important human invention is the method of invention itself.

保罗·罗默

内生增长理论开创者

Ideas are the critical input in production, and people are the critical input into the production of ideas.

保罗·罗默

内生增长理论开创者

The key to sustained economic growth is not the accumulation of physical capital, but the accumulation of knowledge.

保罗·罗默

内生增长理论开创者

Ideas are the critical input in the production of more valuable human and nonhuman resources.

保罗·罗默

内生增长理论开创者

The challenge is to create institutions that align private incentives with the social value of knowledge.

保罗·罗默

内生增长理论开创者

Technology is the set of instructions that we use to rearrange the physical world to create value.

保罗·罗默

内生增长理论开创者

The key to growth is not the accumulation of physical capital, but the expansion of knowledge.

保罗·罗默

内生增长理论开创者

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