The best predictions come not from complex models, but from understanding fundamental incentives.

所以富贵的人极其奢侈,二孤儿寡妇却受饥挨饿,虽然想天下不乱,也不可能。国君若真的希望天下太平而不希望天下大乱的话,如果要吃喝,就不能不节俭。

预测未来的最好方法是创造它。

"I think that my job is to observe people and the world, and not to judge them. I always hope to position myself away from so-called conclusions."

你怀疑别人，别人也就会怀疑你，你提防别人，别人也就是提防你，

如果我知道我会在哪里死去，那我一辈子都不会去那里。