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「Reversion to the mean is the iron rule of the financial markets.」- 约翰·博格尔经典语录
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Reversion to the mean is the iron rule of the financial markets.
约翰·博格尔
💡 解读：
回归均值是金融市场的铁律。
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As a result, Keynes warned, the stock market would...
What may work for the few cannot work for the many...
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👤 更多 约翰·博格尔 经典语录
10句
两类差异很大的烘焙类食物——贝果面包和甜甜圈，正好代表了股市收益中两种完全不同的元素。将贝果面包看做股市中的投资收益，即股息收入加上盈利增长。松软可口的甜甜圈也代表了价格发生实质性变化后得到的投机收益，而投资者非常愿意为所获得的投机收益支付一定金额。长远来看，投资回报才是决定一切的因素。当然也吸取一个教训：好好享受贝果面包的健康成分，不要期望甜甜圈的甜味或酸味能够长期起作用。
约翰·博格尔
过去20年间，股市的投资收益率一直很可靠。早期的股息收益率较为慷慨，对收益率的贡献为4.5%，而利润增长率稍高一些，但并不非常突出，每年为5.9%左右。两项相加合起来的投资收益率为10.4%左右，与股市长期的名义收益率相当。不过，投机收益率比起投资收益率的两个组成部分都要高一些。20年来，股市的平均市盈率从1980年的7.3倍提高到2000年的30倍左右，从而使股市的投机收益率达到年均7.3%左右。这样，股市的年均总收益率达17.7%左右。
约翰·博格尔
投资根本就没有终极秘诀，只有最伟大的简洁。这些投资法则都是关于基本的算术，关于最基本和最没有争议的原则。但是投资不是件容易的事，因为它需要纪律、耐心、毅力以及最宝贵的品质与常识。金融市场总是来回摇摆，你需要尽可能忽略那些转瞬即逝的不和谐因素，将短期的变化与长期的情况分开。一切投资智慧中最重要的原则总结起来不过这四个字：坚持到底！
约翰·博格尔
投资者将要面临的下一个严峻考验就是在投资组合中选择最恰当的资产配置方式。股票的目的是提供资产和收入的增长，而债券则是保持现有资产和现有的收入水平。考虑刚开始投资时将资产分配为一半股票一半债券，如果发生以下情况则考虑将投资股票的份额提高：你仍然还有足够时间进行财富累积；你用来进行高风险投资的资金保持在适度的水平；现有收入对你影响不大；你有足够勇气来面对经济繁荣和萧条，并能以平常心待之。
约翰·博格尔
如果你很难想象股市会损失 20%，你就不应该在股票中。
约翰·博格尔
依靠聪明、平衡的人类几个世纪以来所依赖的普通美德。常识、节俭、现实的期望、耐心和毅力。
约翰·博格尔
绝大多数投资者——既包括个人投资者也包括机构投资者，通常都是基于最近的数据和过去久远的教训来做出投资决定。投资者不应该无视过去，但也不能想当然地认为某种特定的周期性循环会永远存在。没有什么是永远存在的。仅仅因为个别投资者坚持要“打完最后一场仗”，不代表你也要这么做。这种做法很快就会失败。
约翰·博格尔
平均射击是你完成高于平均水平的最佳机会。
约翰·博格尔
最后，正如丘吉尔指出的那样，你总是可以指望美国人做正确的事情，但只有在他们尝试了其他一切之后。
约翰·博格尔
当一个问题有多种解决方案时，请选择最简单的一种。
约翰·博格尔
🔥 热门推荐
10句
但是在这里，真正属于我的世界只有脚下的小路那么宽。我一步也不会离开这条路。我从不曾需要多么宽阔的通道，能侧身而过就足够了。像鸟在天空侧身飞翔，鱼在大海里侧身遨游，我从来不曾渴望过全部的世界。我只是经过这个世界，去向的一个小小的所在。我只依赖熟知的事物而生活，我心有牵挂，不想迷路，不想回不了家。我在山野里，游荡在节制之中。但已经感到足够的自由。
李娟
但愿同入梦。
琼瑶
悲伤就是知识
拜伦
表面看起来糟糕的事，本质上却往往并非如此。
塞涅卡
我绝不坚信这个时代没有放之四海而皆准的正义和良善的价值观，它们不仅仅有，而且不是朝令夕改流动无常的，它们是稳定而永恒的。
亚历山大·索尔仁尼琴
我们根本没想到要怀疑或轻视“历史的启示”；历史就是我们的一切。
恩格斯
奇花与丽日争妍，翠竹共青天斗碧。
吴承恩
大家礼义教子弟，小家凶恶训儿郎。
周希陶
真理就是自由人的祖国。真理不存在于丑化了的现实里。生命的第一个行动就是创造的行动。在争论中是不分高贵卑鄙，也不管称号姓氏的，重要的只是真理，在它面前人人平等。
罗曼·罗兰
人人为我，我为人人。
列宁
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40句相邻名言
The historical data support one conclusion with unusual force. To invest with success, you must be a long-term investor.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
If your fund doesn’t last for the long term, how can you invest for the long term?
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
The grim irony of investing, then, is that we investors as a group not only don’t get what we pay for, we get precisely what we don’t pay for. So if we pay for nothing, we get everything.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
Your success in investing will depend in part on your character and guts, and in part on your ability to realize at the height of ebullience and the depth of despair alike that this too shall pass.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
The mistakes we make as investors is when the market’s going up, we think it’s going to go up forever. When the market goes down, we think it’s going to go down forever. Neither of those things actually happen. Doesn’t do anything forever. It’s by the moment.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
The mutual fund industry has been built, in a sense, on witchcraft.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
The winning formula for success in investing is owning the entire stock market through an index fund, and then doing nothing. Just stay the course.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
But most short-term renters of stocks are not particularly interested in assuring that corporate governance is focused on placing the interests of the stockholder first.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
If the data do not prove that indexing wins, well, the data are wrong.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
Owning the stock market over the long term is a winner’s game, but attempting to beat the market is a loser’s game.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
The courage to press on regardless of whether we face calm seas or rough seas, and especially when the market storms howl around us, is the quintessential attribute of the successful investor.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
Don’t think that you know more than the market. No one does. And don’t act on insights that you think are your own but are usually shared by millions of others.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
Over the short run, however, the fundamentals are often overwhelmed by the deafening noise of speculation, the price at which the stock market values each dollar of earnings.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
The stock market is a giant distraction to the business of investing.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
Before costs, beating the market is a zero-sum game. After costs, it is a loser’s game.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
Surprise! The returns reported by mutual funds aren’t actually earned by mutual fund investors.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
The transfer of Wall Street from private ownership to public ownership has been a big step backward.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
Where returns are concerned, time is your friend. But where costs are concerned, time is your enemy.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
As a result, Keynes warned, the stock market would become a battle of wits to anticipate the basis of conventional valuation a few months hence, rather than the prospective yield of an investment over a long term of years.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
What may work for the few cannot work for the many.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
I believe deeply and profoundly that speculation is a loser’s game.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
It will also tell you how easy it is to do just that. Simply buy the entire stock market. Then, once you have bought your stocks, get out of the casino and stay out. Just hold the market portfolio forever. And that’s what the index fund does. This investment philosophy is not only simple and elegant. The arithmetic on which it is based is irrefutable. But it is not easy to follow its discipline.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest one.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
I think it’s gone much too far. Most of them are not worth the powder to blow them to hell.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
On balance, the financial system subtracts value from society.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
The principal role of the mutual fund is to serve its investors.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
Rely on the ordinary virtues that intelligent, balanced human beings have relied on for centuries. Common sense, thrift, realistic expectations, patience, and perseverance.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
In Las Vegas we all know that it’s the croupiers who win. At the race track, it’s those who control the handle who win. State lotteries, does anybody think the participants in the lottery win? No. The state wins.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
The multiple failings of our flawed financial sector are jeopardizing, not only the retirement security of our nation’s savers but the economy in which our entire society participates.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
It's amazing how difficult it is for a man to understand something if he’s paid a small fortune not to understand it.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
The miracle of compounding returns is overwhelmed by the tyranny of compounding costs.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
Don’t look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others. It’s cheaper!
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
Gunning for average is your best shot at finishing above average.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
For finally, you can always count on Americans to do the right thing, as Churchill pointed out, but only after they’ve tried everything else.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
I will create value for society, rather than extract it.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
We need a mutual fund industry with both vision and values. A vision of fiduciary duty and shareholder service, and values rooted in the proven principles of long-term investing and of trusteeship that demands integrity in serving our clients.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
Time is your friend. Impulse is your enemy.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan. Stick to the good plan.
约翰·博格尔
人称“指数基金教父”
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