「The illusion of validity is a cognitive bias that describes our tendency to be overconfident in the accuracy of our judgments.」- 阿莫斯·特沃斯基经典语录

The illusion of validity is a cognitive bias that describes our tendency to be overconfident in the accuracy of our judgments.

阿莫斯·特沃斯基

💡 解读：有效性幻觉是一种认知偏差，描述了我们倾向于对自己的判断准确性过度自信。

👤 更多阿莫斯·特沃斯基经典语录 7句

People predict by making up stories.

阿莫斯·特沃斯基

The most important thing about science is that it provides us with a method for asking questions that can be answered unambiguously.

阿莫斯·特沃斯基

The most important thing about science is that it’s a way of preventing yourself from lying to yourself.

阿莫斯·特沃斯基

The secret to doing good research is always to be a little underemployed. You waste years by not being able to waste hours.

阿莫斯·特沃斯基

The most important thing about a theory is its predictive validity, not its aesthetic appeal.

阿莫斯·特沃斯基

The illusion of validity is a cognitive illusion in which a person overestimates his or her ability to interpret and predict accurately the outcome when analyzing a set of data.

阿莫斯·特沃斯基

The mind is a machine for jumping to conclusions.

阿莫斯·特沃斯基

李娟

但愿同入梦。

琼瑶

悲伤就是知识

拜伦

表面看起来糟糕的事，本质上却往往并非如此。

塞涅卡

我绝不坚信这个时代没有放之四海而皆准的正义和良善的价值观，它们不仅仅有，而且不是朝令夕改流动无常的，它们是稳定而永恒的。

亚历山大·索尔仁尼琴

我们根本没想到要怀疑或轻视“历史的启示”；历史就是我们的一切。

恩格斯

奇花与丽日争妍，翠竹共青天斗碧。

吴承恩

大家礼义教子弟，小家凶恶训儿郎。

周希陶

人人为我，我为人人。

列宁

真理就是自由人的祖国。真理不存在于丑化了的现实里。生命的第一个行动就是创造的行动。在争论中是不分高贵卑鄙，也不管称号姓氏的，重要的只是真理，在它面前人人平等。

罗曼·罗兰

40句相邻名言

Markets are not perfectly efficient, but they are efficient enough that most people cannot consistently beat them.

迈伦·斯科尔斯

期权定价模型开创者

The only way to make money is to take risks, but the key is to take calculated risks.

迈伦·斯科尔斯

期权定价模型开创者

The most important thing in investing is not how much you make, but how much you keep after taxes.

迈伦·斯科尔斯

期权定价模型开创者

The beauty of continuous-time finance is that it allows us to think about the economics of uncertainty in a very precise way.

罗伯特·默顿

期权定价理论与金融工程奠基人

Financial innovation can be a powerful force for good, but it can also be a source of instability if not properly managed.

罗伯特·默顿

期权定价理论与金融工程奠基人

The most important lesson from the history of financial markets is that risk is never truly eliminated, only transformed.

罗伯特·默顿

期权定价理论与金融工程奠基人

In finance, the only free lunch is diversification.

罗伯特·默顿

期权定价理论与金融工程奠基人

The real test of a financial model is not how complex it is, but how well it captures the essential features of the economic problem.

罗伯特·默顿

期权定价理论与金融工程奠基人

The beauty of the Black-Scholes model is that it reduces the problem of pricing an option to a few observable variables.

罗伯特·默顿

期权定价理论与金融工程奠基人

Financial innovation can be a force for good, but only if it is properly understood and managed.

罗伯特·默顿

期权定价理论与金融工程奠基人

Risk is not just about the probability of loss, but also about the uncertainty of outcomes.

罗伯特·默顿

期权定价理论与金融工程奠基人

The most important lesson from the financial crisis is that we need to think about systemic risk in a more comprehensive way.

罗伯特·默顿

期权定价理论与金融工程奠基人

In finance, the only certainty is that there is no certainty.

罗伯特·默顿

期权定价理论与金融工程奠基人

The beauty of the Black-Scholes model is that it reduces the problem of pricing an option to estimating a few key parameters, most notably volatility.

罗伯特·默顿

期权定价理论与金融工程奠基人

In finance, the only certainty is uncertainty.

罗伯特·默顿

期权定价理论与金融工程奠基人

The secret to doing good research is always to be a little underemployed. You waste years by not being able to waste hours.

阿莫斯·特沃斯基

行为经济学奠基人

People predict by making up stories.

阿莫斯·特沃斯基

行为经济学奠基人

The mind is a machine for jumping to conclusions.

阿莫斯·特沃斯基

行为经济学奠基人

The illusion of validity is a cognitive illusion in which a person overestimates his or her ability to interpret and predict accurately the outcome when analyzing a set of data.

阿莫斯·特沃斯基

行为经济学奠基人

The most important thing about science is that it provides us with a method for asking questions that can be answered unambiguously.

阿莫斯·特沃斯基

行为经济学奠基人

The most important thing about science is that it’s a way of preventing yourself from lying to yourself.

阿莫斯·特沃斯基

行为经济学奠基人

The most important thing about a theory is its predictive validity, not its aesthetic appeal.

阿莫斯·特沃斯基

行为经济学奠基人

The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is a useful tool for understanding the risk-return tradeoff, but it is far from perfect.

肯尼斯·弗伦奇

提出多因子模型，革新资产定价理论

Investors should be aware that the factors driving returns today may not be the same ones that drive returns tomorrow.

肯尼斯·弗伦奇

提出多因子模型，革新资产定价理论

The size and value effects are pervasive across different markets and time periods.

肯尼斯·弗伦奇

提出多因子模型，革新资产定价理论

Diversification is the only free lunch in finance, but it requires discipline and patience.

肯尼斯·弗伦奇

提出多因子模型，革新资产定价理论

Market efficiency does not mean that prices are always right, but that they are impossible to predict consistently.

肯尼斯·弗伦奇

提出多因子模型，革新资产定价理论

The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is a useful tool for understanding the risk-return tradeoff, but it is not a perfect description of reality.

肯尼斯·弗伦奇

提出多因子模型，革新资产定价理论

The size and value effects are pervasive across different markets and time periods, but their magnitude can vary significantly.

肯尼斯·弗伦奇

提出多因子模型，革新资产定价理论

Investors should be aware that the market does not always reward risk in the way that traditional models predict.

肯尼斯·弗伦奇

提出多因子模型，革新资产定价理论

The size and value effects are persistent anomalies that challenge the efficient market hypothesis.

肯尼斯·弗伦奇

提出多因子模型，革新资产定价理论

Diversification is still the only free lunch in finance, but it requires more than just holding a large number of stocks.

肯尼斯·弗伦奇

提出多因子模型，革新资产定价理论

The Great Depression was the defining macroeconomic event of the twentieth century, and it led to a fundamental rethinking of macroeconomic theory and policy.

本·伯南克

提出金融加速器理论的经济学家

Monetary policy is 98% talk and only 2% action.

本·伯南克

提出金融加速器理论的经济学家

The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency.

本·伯南克

提出金融加速器理论的经济学家

The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.

本·伯南克

提出金融加速器理论的经济学家

The global financial crisis was the worst in modern history, and it required an extraordinary response.

本·伯南克

提出金融加速器理论的经济学家

The Federal Reserve’s response to the financial crisis was in fact a classic lender-of-last-resort operation, scaled to the magnitude of the crisis.

本·伯南克

提出金融加速器理论的经济学家

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon, but it is also influenced by real factors, such as the balance between supply and demand in the economy.

本·伯南克

提出金融加速器理论的经济学家

The financial crisis was not a failure of capitalism but rather a failure of a particular set of institutions and practices that had grown up within capitalism.

本·伯南克

提出金融加速器理论的经济学家

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