「The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.」- 丹尼尔·卡尼曼经典语录

The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

💡 解读：认为未来不可预测的观点每天都在被我们轻易解释过去的事实所削弱。

👤 更多丹尼尔·卡尼曼经典语录 10句

The emotional tail wags the rational dog.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

Nothing in life is as important as you think it is while you are thinking about it.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people’s mistakes than our own.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

Nothing in life is as important as you think it is when you are thinking about it.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

Intelligence is not only the ability to reason; it is also the ability to find relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

The world makes much less sense than you think. The coherence comes mostly from the way your mind works.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

Optimism is normal, but some fortunate people are more optimistic than the rest of us.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

李娟

但愿同入梦。

琼瑶

悲伤就是知识

拜伦

表面看起来糟糕的事，本质上却往往并非如此。

塞涅卡

我绝不坚信这个时代没有放之四海而皆准的正义和良善的价值观，它们不仅仅有，而且不是朝令夕改流动无常的，它们是稳定而永恒的。

亚历山大·索尔仁尼琴

我们根本没想到要怀疑或轻视“历史的启示”；历史就是我们的一切。

恩格斯

奇花与丽日争妍，翠竹共青天斗碧。

吴承恩

大家礼义教子弟，小家凶恶训儿郎。

周希陶

人人为我，我为人人。

列宁

真理就是自由人的祖国。真理不存在于丑化了的现实里。生命的第一个行动就是创造的行动。在争论中是不分高贵卑鄙，也不管称号姓氏的，重要的只是真理，在它面前人人平等。

罗曼·罗兰

40句相邻名言

Uncertainty is the only certainty there is, and knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security.

罗纳德·A·霍华德

决策分析与风险管理领域的先驱

A decision is the action you take when you have the power to take it.

罗纳德·A·霍华德

决策分析与风险管理领域的先驱

The quality of a decision is not measured by the outcome but by the process used to make it.

罗纳德·A·霍华德

决策分析与风险管理领域的先驱

Risk is the possibility of loss, and uncertainty is the lack of certainty.

罗纳德·A·霍华德

决策分析与风险管理领域的先驱

Decision analysis is the discipline of evaluating complex alternatives in terms of values and uncertainties.

罗纳德·A·霍华德

决策分析与风险管理领域的先驱

The quality of a decision is not measured by its outcome but by the process used to make it.

罗纳德·A·霍华德

决策分析与风险管理领域的先驱

Risk is the possibility of an outcome that is different from the one you expect.

罗纳德·A·霍华德

决策分析与风险管理领域的先驱

The most important negotiation is the one you are not aware you are in.

马克斯·H·巴泽曼

决策科学与行为经济学权威

Theories of choice ignore most of what we know about humans. They ignore the fact that humans are often confused, that they often do not know what they want, that they often act out of habit or impulse rather than calculated self-interest.

詹姆斯·G·马奇

决策分析与信息系统领域的先驱

Organizations are collections of choices looking for problems, issues and feelings looking for decision situations in which they might be aired, solutions looking for issues to which they might be the answer, and decision makers looking for work.

詹姆斯·G·马奇

决策分析与信息系统领域的先驱

Learning is not simply a matter of storing information; it is a process of adapting to the environment by changing the rules that govern behavior.

詹姆斯·G·马奇

决策分析与信息系统领域的先驱

The past is a great source of knowledge, but it is also a great source of illusions.

詹姆斯·G·马奇

决策分析与信息系统领域的先驱

Theories of choice ignore most of what we know about humans.

詹姆斯·G·马奇

决策分析与信息系统领域的先驱

Learning is not simply a matter of remembering; it is a matter of creating.

詹姆斯·G·马奇

决策分析与信息系统领域的先驱

Decision making is a process of interpretation as much as it is a process of calculation.

詹姆斯·G·马奇

决策分析与信息系统领域的先驱

Theories of choice ignore the fact that most human behavior is based on routine rather than on calculated decisions.

詹姆斯·G·马奇

决策分析与信息系统领域的先驱

Learning is not simply a matter of storing information; it is a process of changing the way we think.

詹姆斯·G·马奇

决策分析与信息系统领域的先驱

The past is a great source of learning, but it is also a great source of error.

詹姆斯·G·马奇

决策分析与信息系统领域的先驱

Most of what we call management consists of making it difficult for people to get their work done.

詹姆斯·G·马奇

决策分析与信息系统领域的先驱

The problem is that we are not only irrational, but predictably irrational—that our irrationality happens the same way, again and again.

丹·艾瑞里

行为经济学与决策心理学专家

We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

行为经济学奠基人

Nothing in life is as important as you think it is when you are thinking about it.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

行为经济学奠基人

The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

行为经济学奠基人

A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

行为经济学奠基人

The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

行为经济学奠基人

The emotional tail wags the rational dog.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

行为经济学奠基人

The world makes much less sense than you think. The coherence comes mostly from the way your mind works.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

行为经济学奠基人

Intelligence is not only the ability to reason; it is also the ability to find relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

行为经济学奠基人

The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people’s mistakes than our own.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

行为经济学奠基人

Optimism is normal, but some fortunate people are more optimistic than the rest of us.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

行为经济学奠基人

Nothing in life is as important as you think it is while you are thinking about it.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼

行为经济学奠基人

The essence of decision analysis is to decompose complex problems into simpler, more manageable components.

大卫·G·卢恩伯格

决策分析与风险管理领域的权威学者

Risk management is not about eliminating risk but about understanding and managing it effectively.

大卫·G·卢恩伯格

决策分析与风险管理领域的权威学者

Optimization is the art of making the best possible decision under given constraints.

大卫·G·卢恩伯格

决策分析与风险管理领域的权威学者

A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers.

大卫·G·卢恩伯格

决策分析与风险管理领域的权威学者

The value of information lies in its ability to reduce uncertainty.

大卫·G·卢恩伯格

决策分析与风险管理领域的权威学者

The essence of decision analysis is to decompose a complex problem into simpler components, analyze each component, and then synthesize the results to reach a conclusion.

大卫·G·卢恩伯格

决策分析与风险管理领域的权威学者

Risk management is not about eliminating risk but about understanding it and making informed choices.

大卫·G·卢恩伯格

决策分析与风险管理领域的权威学者

A model is a simplified representation of reality, but its value lies in its ability to provide insights that are not immediately obvious.

大卫·G·卢恩伯格

决策分析与风险管理领域的权威学者

The goal of engineering is not just to build things but to build things that work well under uncertainty.

大卫·G·卢恩伯格

决策分析与风险管理领域的权威学者

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